NEWSLETTER-01 JULY 2008

NEWSLETTER – 01/07/2008

Nifty future for day trading. Remain short below 4043 with stop loss 4070,target 3908.

THIS WEEK (30-04) Nifty future below 4186 bearish down side targets 3983-3855. Above 4220 targets are 4264 and 4312.

Monthly Levels of Nifty Spot for the month of July.

Remain short below 4360 for targets of 3817.

Nifty Future for July- Remain short below 4317 for targets of 3743,3379

Day Trading Calls 01 JULY 2008

NIFTY FUT (3972.75) SELL BELOW 4043 STOP LOSS 4070 TARGET 3908 UNITECH SELL BELOW Rs:175.00 STOP LOSS Rs:179.00 TARGET Rs:166.00 DLF SELL BELOW Rs:408.00 STOP LOSS Rs:415.00 TARGET Rs:377.00 TATA STEEL SELL BELOW Rs: 735 STOP LOSS Rs: 745 TARGET Rs: 694.00 RENUKA SELL BELOW Rs:102.00 STOP LOSS Rs:105.00 TARGET Rs: 94.00

IMP DISCLAIMER: Above matter is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts, which are believed to be authentic. One should think of own risk first before implementing on above analysis. The author won't be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.

Market View – 30/06/2008

Nifty future for day trading Sell below 4138 with stop loss 4160,targets 4012-3932.

THIS WEEK (30-04) Nifty future below 4186 bearish down side targets 3983-3855. Above 4220 targets are 4264 and 4312.

If Nifty Spot does not break 4093, then we can see a pull back to 4297 levels.

Day Trading Calls 30^th JUNE 2008

NIFTY FUT (4078.55) SELL BELOW 4138.00 STOP LOSS 4160.00 TARGET Rs:4012.00 / 3932.00 UNITECH (182.80) BUY ABOVE Rs:182 STOP LOSS Rs:177.00 TARGET Rs:186/193 DLF (425.10) SELL BELOW Rs:435 STOP LOSS Rs:440.00 TARGET Rs:407.00 / 401.00 TATA STEEL (726.90) SELL BELOW Rs: 739 STOP LOSS Rs: 750 TARGET Rs: 720/ 694.00 RCOM FUT (473.30) SELL BELOW Rs:476.00 STOP LOSS Rs:481.00 TARGET Rs:462.00 / 451.00

IMP DISCLAIMER: Above matter is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts, which are believed to be authentic. One should think of own risk first before implementing on above analysis. The author won't be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.

CRITICAL LEVELS-30 JUNE

MORNING UPDATE-27 JUNE

MARKET OUTLOOK
A barrage of bad news including yet another record high for oil drove stocks sharply lower Thursday, hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 360 points to their lowest level in almost two years. Asian markets have opened two percent down. How do we trade our markets today? Watch for 4135. If Nifty future trades below this go short for tgt of 4006. If NF can cross this level and sustain for some time only then consider going long.

CRITICAL LEVELS 27 JUNE

TRADING CALLS -26 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
Watch 4259 trades above Buy for tgt of 4359
Trades below 4259 sell for tgt of 4227, 4216. Below 4216 -4176, 4043

CAIRN
Sell below 269 stoploss 272 tgt 265,263,260.
Above 272 buy tgt 280

UNITECH
Buy above 182 stoploss 181 tgt 193
Sell Below 181 tgt 177. trades below 177 tgt 174,171

RANBAXY
Buy above 530 stoploss 528 tgt 558, 576

L&T
Sell below 2335 stoploss 2342 tgt 2317, 2193
Buy above 2342 stoploss 2315 tgt 2364, 2394

RPL
Buy above 167 stoploss 163 tgt 174, 178

RELCAPITAL
Buy above 985 stoploss 968.50 tgt 1030

CRITICAL LEVELS -25 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
Remain Short below 4250 tgt 4148,4121,4100,4069

CAIRN
Remain short below 266 stoploss 267 tgt 253.
Trades above 267 buy stoploss 265 tgt 271

ITC
Remain short below 195 tgt 183

RANBAXY
Sell below 527 stoploss 530 tgt 524/520 and 501
Buy above 530 stoploss 527 tgt 547

RPL
Remain short below 167 tgt 159

L&T
Remain short below 2385 tgt 2210

UNITECH
Buy above 171 stoploss 170 tgt 173/75. Above 175 tgt 179
Trades Below 170 sell stoploss 172 tgt 158

WIPRO
Sell below 476.50 stoploss 478 tgt 472. Below 472 tgt 459
Buy above 478 stoploss 475 tgt 481

SATYAM
Sell below 458 stoploss 460 tgt 445
Buy above 460 stoploss 458 tgt 462/65

RENUKA
Sell below 104 stoploss 105 tgt 99
Buy above 105 stoploss 104 tgt 107

TRADING CALLS-24 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
Stay Short Below 4335 stoploss 4345 for tgt of 4240, 4213, 4187, 4156

CAIRN
Buy above 270.75 stoploss 268 tgt- 273, 275,277
Sell Below 268 tgt 258

ITC
Remain short below 198 for tgt of 190

RANBAXY
Sell below 530 tgt 496

RPL
Remain short below 171.50 tgt 165,159

L&T
Remain Short below 2483 tgt 2319

UNITECH
Remain short below 177 tgt 162

WIPRO
Above 475 remain Long for tgt of 479, 482, 487
Sell below 475 tgt 465

SATYAM
Watch 461. Trades above go long for tgt of 464,467,471
Sell below 461 for tgt of 450

RENUKA
Remain short below 106.50 for tgt of 98

TRADING CALLS 23 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
Remain Short below 4395 for tgt of 4268

CAIRN
Short Below 272 tgt 257
Long above 272 tgt 274,277,280

ITC
Short below 199 tgt 191
Long above 199 tgt 201/203

RANBAXY
Remain Short below 575 tgt 512

RPL
Remain Short below 174 tgt 166

L&T
Remain short Below 2612 tgt 2500

UNITECH
Remain short below 188 tgt 176

WIPRO
Remain Short Below 479 tgt 470. Below 470 tgt 464

SATYAM
Remain Short Below 461 tgt 444

TRADING CALLS-20 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
Remain short below 4539 tgt 4421. Stoposs 4562

CAIRN
Buy above 283 for tgt of 289/93.
Sell below 283 for tgt of 278.

ITC
Buy above 205.75 tgt 208/11/13
Sell below 205 tgt 204/203.

RANBAXY
Remain short below 583 tgt 527

RPL
Sell below 181 tgt 174.

UNITECH
Remain short below 197 tgt 195/194/192
Below 192 tgt 185

NIFTY VIEW- 19 JUNE

Today in the morning I was skeptical of an up move in the Nifty as the hourly charts were showing Nifty in overbought region. We traded long in the morning and went short later. For tomorrow Nifty hourly charts is in oversold region. The monthly retracement level is at 4547.
Taking these factors and open interest into consideration there is a possibility that Nifty may open low and take support at 4547 levels and then we may see a dead cat bounce to 4593. If Nifty can cross this then we will see 4633. However on the other hand if Nifty breaks 4547 and trades below then we are certain to see new lows in the coming weeks.

Trading Calls-19 June

NIFTY FUTURE
Remain short below 4593-TGT 4555,4545
Below 4547 -4507 ,4489,4448.

UNITECH
Watch 202.25. Trades below sell -TGT-192.
Trades above Buy -TGT 204,205,208.

RPL
Below 182.75 Sell TGT 179
Above 183 Buy TGT 185,186

RANBAXY
Above 599.25 Buy TGT 605,610,620
Below 599.25 Sell TGT 592,587,581

ITC
Buy above 206 TGT- 208/211

DLF
Below 499 Sell TGT 486,481

NIFTY VIEW

In my previous post I had said that if we close and trade above 4550 we will see the Bulls coming back to work. Today we are at 4653. How is the road looking ahead. This is one question which is foremost in everyones mind. The first stop for Nifty will be 4725. Will the Bulls be able to take it further to 4818 and finally 5128 or will the Bears win and we retrace back to see new lows? As I have said before I do not prempt the market nor do I have the wisdom to forecast. However what I do have is important levels to watch for and we wait and follow the above levels as it unfolds.

TRADING CALLS-18 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE

STAY LONG ABOVE 4624 TGT 4643, 4652,4670,4708
TRADES BELOW 4624 SELL WITH STOPLOSS OF 4645 TGT- 4609,4597,4583,
BELOW 4586 -4547,4525

UNITECH
STAY LONG ABOVE 203 TGT 212.
BELOW 203 SELL TGT 201,199

RPL
STAY LONG ABOVE 184 STOP LOSS 182.-TGT 188,190
SELL BELOW 182 TGT 177

RANBAXY
SELL BELOW 587.50 STOPLOSS 590 TGT 582,579,575

NIFTY OUTLOOK-17 JUNE

Positional traders stay long above 4547 with a stoploss of 4520 for targets of 4614,4681,4763.

Intraday Traders remain short below 4573,sstoploss of 4585 for targets of 4551. Go long above 4585 with a stoploss of 4570 for targets of 4614,4655.

TRADING CALLS-17 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
WATCH 4573- IF IT TRADES ABOVE BUY WITH STOPLOSS AT 4560. IF IT TRADES BELOW 4573 SELL STOPLOSS 4583

CAIRN
BUY ABOVE 284 STOPLOSS 280 TGT-287/90

RANBAXY
WATCH 563. TRADES ABOVE BUY WITH 560 STOPLOSS. TRADES BELOW SELL WITH STOPLOSS OF 570

L&T
BUY 2725 STOPLOSS 2715. TGT 2732,43,57.
TRADES BELOW 2720 SELL WITH STOPLOSS OF 2727

DLF
SELL BELOW 495 STOPLOSS 501 TGT 492,489,486,472

INFOSYS
BUY AT 1890 STOPLOSS 1880 TGT 1897, 1907, 1919

WIPRO
BUY 486 STOPLOSS 482 TGT 495

RENUKA
BUY AT 99 STOPLOSS 96 TGT 103

UNITECH
BUY AT 197 STOPLOSS 190 TGT 205,212

ITC
BUY 199/200 STOPLOSS 196,50 TGT 203,206

TRADING CALLS-16 JUNE

CAIRN
TRADES BELOW 288 SELL ,STOPLOSS-291.50 TGT 276

RPL
SELL ONCE IT TRADES BELOW 177 STOPLOSS 181 TGT 176.174,172.

RANBAXY
TRADES BELOW 564, SELL STOPLOSS 570 TGT 559,554, 550

L&T
REMAIN LONG ABOVE 2705 STOPLOSS 2680. TRADES BELOW 2680 GO SHORT WITH STOPLOSS OF 2705

DLF
SHORT 483 STOPLOSS 488. TGT 464
TRADES ABOVE 483 GO LONG WITH STOPLOSS OF 480 TGT-487,491,495

INFOSYS
SHORT BELOW 1900 STOPLOSS 1925-TGT 1882,1872,1863

JSWSTEEL
REMAIN SHORT BELOW 1002 TGT 907,847

WIPRO
TRADES BELOW 482 SELL STOPLOSS 485 TGT 479, 476, 473,

WEEK AHEAD-WILL THE BULLS RETURN

We are now at a crucial crossroad looking for direction - The question on everyones mind is- Will the BULLS return- (Click on Image to Enlarge)

Or we are still looking for the elusive BOTTOM(Click on Image)

Critical Levels to watch out for next week is 4550 on Nifty Future. If Nifty can break, trade and sustain above this level then we can safely say that the BULLS have finally come back to work to take us to 4614,4681,4763. Will this happen or will we turn back from 4535 to see 4466,4441,4415,4281- Only Time Will tell- My View is to remain short with a stoploss of 4550.

WEEKLY STOCK PICK

ITC AND PANTALOON ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR SHORT TERM INVESTMENT.

BOTH THE STOCKS ARE ON THE VERGE OF TAKING SUPPORT.

CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE

SWING TRADING CALLS-13 JUNE

LONG: Axis Bank / Essar Oil / India Infoline / REL INFRA / RNRL / Tata Steel with SLs on closing basis at 686 / 233 / 597 / 1005 / 87 / 829 . Entry advisable around 712 / 240 / 622 / 1035 / 91 / 856.

SHORT: Airtel / ICICI / R COM / SBI / Sterlite / Tata communication with Sls on closing basis at 857 / 767 / 567 / 1382 / 860 / 477. Entry advisable around 830 / 745 / 545 / 1350 / 830 / 457.

TRADING CALLS-13 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
BUY ABOVE 4509,STOPLOSS 4480 TGT- 4533,4549,4574,4590
CAIRN
BUY ABOVE 291.50 -STOPLOSS 285 TGT 293,294.50,296.
TRADES BELOW 291 SELL -STOPLOSS 293 TGT- 285,282.
RPL
BUY 177 STOPLOSS 173 TGT -184,190
RANBAXY
SELL BELOW 556 STOPLOSS 568 TGT 522,500
LARSEN(LT)
BUY 2685 STOPLOSS 2660 TGT 2753,2811

SWING TRADING-11 JUNE

For Swing Trading consider the following stocks for going long and short:
LONG
ACC / Bombay Dyeing / Century Textiles / HDIL / Reliance / Sail and SLs for these will be 611 / 686 / 543 / 2184 / 151 on closing basis.

SHORT
DLF / ICICI / PNB / capital and SLs for these will be 532 / 767 / 477 / 1147 on Closing Basis.

TRADING CALLS-12 JUNE

NIFTY FUTURE
SELL BELOW 4515 STOPLOSS 4525 TGT 4498,4466,4441,4415.
CAIRN - BUY ABOVE 294.85 STOPLOSS 292 TGT 301
RPL- BUY ABOVE 172.50 STOPLOSS 170.
RANBAXY- SELL BELOW 575 STOPLOSS 580 TGT 565,556, 548
LARSEN- WATCH 2645. TRADES ABOVE BUY WITH 2640 STOPLOSS. TRADES BELOW SELL WITH 2650 STOPLOSS

Trading Calls-11 June

NIFTY FUTURE

PIVOT -4450,
RES-4459, 4479,4498
SUPPORT- 4421,4402,4383,4326
CAIRN- Trades below 299 sell. Sustains above buy
RPL- Buy above 171 tgt 177,182. Below 170 sell tgt-168,167,165
RANBAXY- Buy above 542 tgt-590.stoploss 525

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Trading Calls-10 June

Nifty Future- Trades below 4515 sell stoploss 4525. Trades above 4525 buy sl 4510 tgt 4553,4590

CAIRN- Trades below 300 sell with stoploss of 305 tgt 296,291.

RPL-Buy above 170 stoploss 166 tgt 175,180,185

RENUKA SUGARS- Trades below 93 sell sl 94. Trades above 94 buy stoploss 92

LT- Remain short below 2644 stoploss 2670 tgt 2521

TRADING CALLS-9 JUNE

CAIRN
Above 286.50 tgt-298,308.
RANBAXY
Sell below 518 Stoploss 523 tgt 498. Below 498 -tgt-494, 484,480
LT
Sell below 2700 stoploss 2720-tgt-2646,2620

THE WEEK AHEAD-9 JUNE-13 JUNE

If you refer my previous post under The Month Gone By, 4730 was a crucial level to watch out for and it looks like we have breached this level decisively and headed downwards. We can now safely assume that being short below 4747 is the most sensible trading strategy to adopt and for any up move to happen index should trade and close above this level for three days. Downward targets are 4569/37, 4450. If 4450 is breached then it is very likely we may see the gap being filled at 4100 levels.

CRITICAL LEVELS 9-JUNE TO 14 JUNE

Nifty Future

Trades below 4667 sell with a stoploss of 4725. TGT are 4550,4439.

THE MONTH GONE BY & THE ROAD AHEAD

The month of May saw the Nifty losing 295 points to close at 4870.

Sector wise performance was as follows:

As you can see a lot of pain has been endured by Real Estate and Banking sector investors. Except for IT, Metals and Health-care all other sectors are down.

So whats in store for us going forward. I am a person who does not preempt the market nor do I have the wisdom to predict how the market will perform. I am a follower of the market -UP or DOWN. Resistance and Support Levles are the backbone of my Trading System. Nifty is definitely trading below the six months retracement level of 5177. Hence any up-move from the present downtrend will happen only if Nifty trades and closes above 5177. Until then every rise to 5177 levels is a sell. Having said that when we look at the charts the trend-lines tell us that there is resistance at 4950 and 5050 levels. Support is at 4733. If Nifty trades below 4733 then we will see 4450 immediately. Above 5050 I could not find any resistance trend lines.

Hopefully since the daily charts show oversold we will see a retracement to the monthly level of 4199 before Nifty starts on its downward journey.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS

PIVOT-5122

RESISTANCE- 5311,5429

SUPPORT- 4932, 4814, 4625, 4435

TRADING STRATEGY FOR JUNE

REMAIN SHORT BELOW 5000 AND LONG ABOVE 5181